How big a market opportunity for 13 pin add-ons?

Started by Rhcole, June 04, 2014, 01:59:43 PM

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Rhcole

Well, I don't mind telling you that I'm a bit annoyed with a few of our vendors regarding their reluctance to produce value-enhancing 13 pin add-on products. I'm a business guy who helps companies put new products out and launch startups all of the time. I don't take "No" easily or I wouldn't have stayed in my line of work. I have contacted more than one vendor in the guitar synth/13 pin space pitching them on building small scale productions of boxes that would make our lives better as musicians. It seems obvious to me that small runs of specialty products marked up high enough to make a profit in small batches will attract enough sales to justify a minimal development effort. But, thus, far I have received silence or, in Fishman's case, a very polite but firm "no interest". So, when I get stonewalled on what I think are obvious 13 pin niche product opportunities, I know that there are a few possibilities:

1. I'm being emotionally swayed by my own appreciation of guitar synth/13 pin products to overlook the obvious fact that the market isn't very dynamic or have much upside;
2. The vendors have higher sales numbers to reach in order to justify developing even simple products than the market will bear, so needed products get ignored;
3. The vendors are underperforming in one or more other areas and so are unwilling to consider outside suggestions;
4. They are making SO MUCH money from their core business activities that new suggestions are a distraction;
5. The vendors suffer from the accursed NIH (Not Invented Here) syndrome which makes them callous to feedback;
6. The vendors are internally mismanaged or revolve around a cult-of-personality that makes it difficult for them to do anything other than what the Imperial Czar demands;
7. Something much worse that they don't want me to know about...

I can understand Roland not developing much in the way of add-ons, I've read the same reports that others have posted. But the little guys?

I though of contacting an engineering friend and asking him if he might be interested in producing limited runs of specialty products, but thought I would check in here first. Especially you production pros such as Elantric, WHY WON'T a small-scale small run of 13 pin accessories succeed?

Elantric

#1
QuoteElantric, WHY WON'T a small-scale small run of 13 pin accessories succeed?

Find them here:
VGuitar Forums > For Sale > GK Pickups / Tools / Accessories
https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?board=13.0
Ask Dr Wayne Joness - he's been there done that for 15 years  - and not to nitpick but i doubt hes earning enough of a living exclusively on these Roland GK 13 pin interfaces to quit his day gig yet.
http://www.joness.com/gr300/GR-300.htm#
Remember the Roland GK 13 pin world reflects only .0001% of the Pro M.I. marketplace. And if it were up to the accountants most of our GK 13 pin would would have died years ago.

Today PrimovaSound in Sweden has the most abundant line of GK 13 "solutions"
https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?board=176.0



But the 13 pin hex guitar add on accessory market will forever pale in comparison to the market for modular synths ( all the rage at the moment)










Rhcole

Well there you go, Elantric!
If we just get rid of the accountants it'll solve everything!
(A CPA that I work with on a project is sneaking up behind me with a baseball bat)

Elantric

#3
From my 40 year Guitar perspective - and having worked in the R&D labs of Ernie Ball / MusicMan, Gibson,Tronical, MIDIMan (MAudio), Valley Arts, Positive Grid,  - the successful companies that are still in business all have a cash cow. Its a fact that Ernie Ball String sales profit is what keeps MusicMan alive. And Line6 strategy is offer a low end  / lower cost items to offset the R&D overhead to support the Higher end Helix/ HD500X  / Tyler Variax DSP development. I'm sure the new strategy / emphasis  at Line-6 is push the new  affordable Amplifi Amps and floor unit to new customers. This explains why it took several months (years?) for my Tyler Variax + HD500X +DT50 to all work with my modern Win/Mac computers.       

Rhcole

I get it. Still the "Long Tail" of the Internet should in theory make small niche markets profitable enough to justify the efforts to produce products within them, if only as small profit cenfers. I think the next time I bump into one of the young marketing geniuses I encounter from time to time I'll ask what fhey think.

The problem with being "experienced" is that you can stop challenging your own biases, which I certainly have to be on guard for.

abhijitnath

Which is why it might make sense to sell your products as a crowdfunding project on Kickstarter or the like. If it succeeds, not only will you make money, but Fishman/Roland will see the market demand leading to the next generation of products being more in line with what you want. If it doesn't, you have your answer, sadly.

Now_And_Then

#6
Quote from: Rhcole on June 04, 2014, 01:59:43 PM
Well, I don't mind telling you that I'm a bit annoyed with a few of our vendors regarding their reluctance to produce value-enhancing 13 pin add-on products. It seems obvious to me that small runs of specialty products marked up high enough to make a profit in small batches will attract enough sales to justify a minimal development effort. But, thus, far I have received silence or, in Fishman's case, a very polite but firm "no interest".


When you say that it's obvious to you "that small runs of specialty products marked up high enough to make a profit in small batches will attract enough sales to justify a minimal development effort" what successful products do you actually have in mind that can serve as examples? The RMC Fanout Box, the CHD SGUS-3, or even the Roland US-20? While these products might not have produces losses for their producers, I'm not sure that I'd call them "successful".

Is this new high-price (Gittler) GK 13-pin cable successful? While it may be a great product for certain 13-pin users, does it matter, in the long run, to most of them? How many of them are going to be sold? It would be nice to know the specific economics of this product and its producer, but I have a feeling that were it known, it would not be such as to encourage anyone to travel the same road...

All the BlueChip/Axon boxes also look suspiciously like failures, commercially speaking - and of course those required much more than "a minimal development effort".

And while not a 13-pin product but somewhat related, I wonder if Fishman regrets having invested time, effort, and money into the Triple Play. I'm pretty sure that I've seen them selling, new, on Amazon for less than $300 (which is maybe not a great discount considering that they are $335 new there right now). My impression is that it has not been a successful product. 

As far as I can see, the only GK product that seems to have been successful is... the GR-55. And although I have plenty of GK-compatible gear here, I don't have that - nor am I going to get it. That, it seems, it what it takes to be successful. Kind of depressing, if you ask me. 

I'm hardly a barometer but even *I* am getting more than a little fed up with both Roland and with the whole GK line of development - and I have a considerable amount of that stuff. But that's kind of a different matter.





Elantric

#7
Not to rain on anybody's parade, but in this era of RoHS WEE Compliance, FCC, CE, UL Low Voltage Directive  Compliance - most products that are desirable with any "smarts" (i.e. a CPU inside  running faster than 10MHz)  if you intend to sell your new fangled GK switch box  / adapter  product around the globe, there is minimum $6K for a FCC/CE RF Emissions compliance test and report of certification cost to the developer / manufacturer per each product  type (i.e. if you design and market three separate products  = $18k compliance test and report of certification cost to the manufacturer for obtaining all the unique regional EMC  / RF Radiated Emissions, and Safety compliance certifications for multiple countries. So if you dream up a new product, you have to factor EMC/CE compliance testing into your non recurring engineering costs and target your customers needs and hope sales materialize to fully recoup this up front expense.
If you fly under the radar of border check customs agents, you may be OK for a short while, but these days its typical to have your product seized at the border if there is no FCC/CE certification marking on your product, (Gibson Dark Fire comes to mind) and if you do become a success and have lots of happy customers, but no FCC/CE Certification - expect the authorities  to come down hard on you   
read more sobering details here:


FCC / CE Standards have teeth

https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?topic=11234.0

But in regards to the title of this thread:

"How big a market opportunity for 13 pin add-ons?"

Its never been bigger than today - thanks to Roland and GR-55, and the new Boss GP-10 appears to be a hit, and of course here at VGuitarforums we exceed  over 20,000 members  - so there are folks interested in what results from these discussions.

I have seriously thought of offering DIY kit versions of Gk 13pin product offerings with a PC board and bag of parts and instruction sheet on how to build  - to circumvent high cost of global postage.   


Rhcole

You guys raise intelligent and thought-provoking points. I do know of niche product successes but not within the music industry, as I haven't worked there for about 4 years. In my line of work I run into eccentric technologists all the time who quietly develop and sell "little" products (boards, cables, add-ons) within various markets that you would never know about unless you were within the space. Some of these guys sell the products as low-volume profit centers, a few guys live off of the incomes completely, and a couple of 'em are quietly becoming wealthy selling these things.

The music industry is a different and challenging beast, no doubt. And, I mostly look at it through the same lens as the rest of the people on this board, as an enthusiastic and somewhat critical consumer. But, occasionally I notice things from a promotional, development, or communications standpoint that I know just aren't the right way to do it. I have had the privilege (if it is indeed a privilege) of reviewing not just a handful or a few dozen ideas, I estimate I've had to evaluate somewhere between 3 - 5 thousand projects over the years from a development perspective. That's a lot of ideas, and a lot of lessons.

The net is that I believe that there's a way to do almost anything you want to do and have it succeed, but that also there are so many unimaginable ways to screw things up that it is almost comical.

But then, you probably already knew that.  ;)

Rhcole

OK.

I've thought about this a bit more, and I'm not convinced that the market opportunity is as thin as indicated. When I walk into a project and encounter non-optimum results, I only place the blame within the market itself after I'm sure that good business practices have been followed first. I'm not saying that the various vendors have done things wrong, but I don't see where anybody has really stepped up and taken the actions that would be required to really own the marketplace. I DO think Fishman is giving it a good go with their Triple Play by licensing to Godin and Fender, but I think even they could be missing some of the energy that the market is generating. Consider the following:

1. You are looking right here right now at the leader in the 13 pin market space. That's right, Elantric and friends are close to owning the INTELLECTUAL property of the 13 pin market space on this very site. If you don't believe me, Google "13 pin guitar" and see where this site comes up. IGNORE vendors who are just pushing boxes (Sweetwater, Musician's Friend, etc.). This site is it!
2. However, as good as this site is (and I am very grateful for it), from a marketing perspective I wouldn't call it an "efficient" site, meaning that it isn't taking advantage of its position of ownership/leadership in a meaningful way. You have the market itself which is creating efficiency by ranking this site highly, but the site isn't designed to take advantage of that efficiency. It's a labor of love, no fault there! But, from a BUSINESS perspective that inefficiency leaks out a lot of power.
3. Elantric mentions as an example of moderate results the site http://www.joness.com/gr300/index.htm. I admire and respect what he is doing, BUT, a Google search of "guitar synthesizer" doesn't bring the site up until the second page, and when it does it lists it as "Vintage Roland Guitar Synthesizer Resource". This is further reinforced when you go to the page and see the picture of the GR-300. Most newbies will see both the listing and the pictures and go "Nope, not for me".  In other words, you have to be pretty knowledgeable and a member of the inner sanctum before you really understand what is being offered. This site is also a labor of love! That's great, but it doesn't prove to me that a market segment doesn't exist because this site is not reaching out to engage the people who might constitute that segment. No offense, Dr. Joness and thanks for having the site up.
4. The vendors themselves are also compounding the weakness in the marketplace by not adopting a collaborative stance with this site and others. Roland is oblivious and too far away, and some of the other vendors are missing the greater picture by simply trying to push boxes or pickups or guitars without investing intellectual resources in getting people EXCITED ABOUT USING THEM. I do give RMC credit for their filter board, which is definitely a collaborative solution, but there isn't much of that type of thing going on. You go to a site- say Carvin - watch the Steve Oliver videos and you either buy a guitar or you don't. That's not how you build a groundswell of support for 13 pin guitars, guitar synthesizers, or any other innovative "high touch" product.
5. Even with the negatives, the market is growing, and companies such as Roland and Fishman are dumping dollars into promoting their wares. Once somebody has bought one of these magic gizmos, where do you think they will eventually end up when they can't get it to do what they want it to do...?

I could go on further, but I will simply end by restating what I indicated earlier. Nobody has stepped into this marketplace with the flat-out intention of owning the minds and hearts of people who use the gear. Until somebody has done that and either failed or succeeded, we won't know how great an opportunity really exists or not.

Elantric

#10
Quote
I could go on further, but I will simply end by restating what I indicated earlier. Nobody has stepped into this marketplace with the flat-out intention of owning the minds and hearts of people who use the gear. Until somebody has done that and either failed or succeeded, we won't know how great an opportunity really exists or not.

http://www.proix.com/gk_price/

(translation)
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ja&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.proix.com&edit-text=


https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?topic=1938.msg12028#msg12028

https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?topic=4641.msg31317#msg31317

https://www.vguitarforums.com/smf/index.php?topic=6974.msg48545#msg48545


Instruments:
http://www.proix.com/product/geki_nari_g/index.html
Look at the bottom of the page, a natural quilt-top strat close with TWO 13-pin outputs + quarter inch.

No need for a US20!  Split it right at the guitar.

The Japanese 13-pin scene seems a lot farther along than here:

http://www.proix.com/accessory.html
Look at all the interesting third party adapters, direct boxes, splitters, etc are available.

Tons of links to various 13-pin guitars:
http://www.proix.com/gui_syn.html

Check out the custom rackmountable equipment:
http://www.proix.com/r.html

Want a MIDI/13-pin Patchbay?
http://www.proix.com/product/geki_nari_g/index.html


aliensporebomb

I remember Bill Ruppert with great difficulty found and posted his demos to a Japanese VG site and they seemed amazed by what he could do, and given that Japan is the real place where the 13-pin stuff came from and is happening that's saying something. 

It would have been nice to establish a dialog with 13-pin users over there for here but yeah, it's hard to gauge how popular it is over there since it seems a certain "cult" is using a LOT of esoteric 13-pin tech (the bass player with three different 13-pin outs who replaced his 13-pin jacks with heavy duty industrial amphenol connectors for instance). 

I wish I knew Japanese! 
My music projects online at http://www.aliensporebomb.com/

GK Devices:  Roland VG-99, Boss GP-10, Boss SY-1000.

mbenigni

QuoteI've thought about this a bit more, and I'm not convinced that the market opportunity is as thin as indicated. When I walk into a project and encounter non-optimum results, I only place the blame within the market itself after I'm sure that good business practices have been followed first. I'm not saying that the various vendors have done things wrong, but I don't see where anybody has really stepped up and taken the actions that would be required to really own the marketplace. I DO think Fishman is giving it a good go with their Triple Play by licensing to Godin and Fender, but I think even they could be missing some of the energy that the market is generating. Consider the following:

While I agree that marketing and business practices could be improved in some cases, it doesn't change the big picture:  that excepting a relatively small group of enthusiasts, you're trying to sell people something most of them don't want... or don't understand they should want.  You're answering questions they're not asking.  A staggering majority of guitarists are trying to sound like guitarists/guitars/amps/recordings that have already happened - usually decades ago.  They're not especially impressed if you show them gear that goes beyond all of that, because they are willfully looking backward.  It's a massive cultural hurdle.  Guitarists tend to be traditionalists.  The modeling revolution was a big step forward, but if you look at what made that so successful, it largely boils down to the ability to give a wider variety of traditional tones to the consumer for less money.   In that sense, it actually allowed the uninitiated to think less about their gear, not more - particularly at the time of purchase.  And there were no other caveats in terms of compatibility, etc.

If, by contrast, you show a typical guitarist a 13-pin system, and explain all that can be done with it, his or her eyes will often glaze over.  Even where there is genuine interest, they're glad all the "work" is your problem and not theirs.

So it's not an impossible market, but it is - for now - a market bound by relatively small quantities.

Elantric

#13
QuoteIf, by contrast, you show a typical guitarist a 13-pin system, and explain all that can be done with it, his or her eyes will often glaze over.  Even where there is genuine interest, they're glad all the "work" is your problem and not theirs.

This is my experience too. I recently played on the same bill with U2's Keyboard tech - (who lives here locally and performs in a few cover acts to maintains his chops.)  When we chatted after the gig, I told him about VGuitarforums (thinking I might open a path of communication with "The Edge")  - but he was rather annoyed to hear about our forum - as he "does the math" and figures our "Guitar Synth" world is in direct conflict with his "Keyboard Synth" world.

So there are real glass ceilings with encampments of active "sandboxing" among Pro Keyboardists who feel a bit threatened -and erect glass ceilings  and barriers to overcome  when you pursue this "Guitar Synth"  quest we all are on.




Being raised in a house full of latest pop hits 1955-1975  - Myself - my ears and perspective were always attuned to the evolving sounds of Guitars, From 1953 Les Paul half speed recording techniques, to Scotty Moore slap back echo on Elvis hits, to Reverb drenched Surf instrumentals, to Beatles Paperback Writer, to Jeff Beck & Yardbirds "Heart full of soul", to Leslie speaker Clapton Solos on Cream's "Badge", to Hendrix's "Purple haze / All along the Watch Tower"  "How DID they  get THAT guitar sound?  My generation was always seeking fresh new sounds - I also was addicted to seeking new original tones for my guitar - which in this consumer  / facebook "Me Too" society of 2014 seems to be a viewpoint held by a minority. 

I encourage everyone go out and "Create Disturbance in someones mind"


Rhcole

I have encountered this same bias with other guitar players. It is strange to me how guitar players, who used to be rebels on the vanguard, as a group have turned into the traditionalists they used to scorn. Think Elvis Presley being booed at the Grand Ole' Opry, or Bob Dylan being jeered at the Newport Folk Festival for using an electric guitar. A musical arch-conservative may have a ponytail nowadays.

Still, if you haven't read it, I recommend the book "The Long Tail" by Chris Anderson http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Long_Tail.html?id=-TEJHt3rB40C
It is now the classic book on how micro-economies are created by niche opportunities such as the people who play Vguitar products. An organized niche market creates sustainable opportunities.



CodeSmart

Dr Jones been here for a long time and I respect and acknowledge all his great work, but I did actually try to penetrate the "market" in 2013 by spending a lot of time in designing and producing a small series of GK switchers. GKMX-41/42. I bought short cables and switches from China, other components from Germany, I wired up a prototype by hand, I designed and produced the first series of 10 boards(many nights spent) , found a few bugs and a great guy here helped me to add a 12V to +/-7V converter for the second round of PCB. I bought a drilling machine to produce the boxes (actually hard to find a drill for a 13-pin + extra space hole) and I had them professionally painted and printed. Each unit total production time including testing about 10-12 hours. Bought packaging material, plastic bags, tape Etc. Studied export rules...Each unit sold for abt. $300-360 USD.
Financially worth it? NO WAY! Geek factor, fun to do it, interesting, all positive feedback from customers, recognition worth it? HELL YES!  :)

Ok, why don't I market it outside this forum, GP Magazine etc. ? Because they need to be better designed for mass production and because I think it's really, really hard to get devices like this monetarily profitable.

However now when I've ran out of units (thanks guys) it feels empty and I hope to be able to have time for a second design/production iteration.

So, at least I've tried (as Dr Jones already tried) in a small scale, which is (actually better than expected) abt. 15 units in 8 months. Extensive marketing might would have 10-fold it. Even then, economically worth it...compared to regular work... Na!

But fun  ;D
But I got more gear than I need...and I like it!

Rhcole

For most of us, being a musician doesn't primarily produce large financial rewards either, but we do it anyway.
The goal is not to get rich, it is to make enough money to justify the efforts to develop and produce. Think niche income combined with other revenue sources.
And yes, it is necessary to promote  properly. You need to say "hello" to  new guys, not just the regulars on the forum. If a true newbie, you have to talk in terms of problems solved, not features.

I have worked with quite a few brilliant engineers who produce really great products. Many of these guys couldn't sell $20 bills for $10. It's a different set of skills.

Elantric

#17
QuoteDr Jones been here for a long time and I respect and acknowledge all his great work, but I did actually try to penetrate the "market" in 2013 by spending a lot of time in designing and producing a small series of GK switchers. GKMX-41/42. I bought short cables and switches from China, other components from Germany, I wired up a prototype by hand, I designed and produced the first series of 10 boards(many nights spent) , found a few bugs and a great guy here helped me to add a 12V to +/-7V converter for the second round of PCB. I bought a drilling machine to produce the boxes (actually hard to find a drill for a 13-pin + extra space hole) and I had them professionally painted and printed. Each unit total production time including testing about 10-12 hours. Bought packaging material, plastic bags, tape Etc. Studied export rules...Each unit sold for abt. $300-360 USD.
Financially worth it? NO WAY! Geek factor, fun to do it, interesting, all positive feedback from customers, recognition worth it? HELL YES!  :)

Ok, why don't I market it outside this forum, GP Magazine etc. ? Because they need to be better designed for mass production and because I think it's really, really hard to get devices like this monetarily profitable.

However now when I've ran out of units (thanks guys) it feels empty and I hope to be able to have time for a second design/production iteration.

So, at least I've tried (as Dr Jones already tried) in a small scale, which is (actually better than expected) abt. 15 units in 8 months. Extensive marketing might would have 10-fold it. Even then, economically worth it...compared to regular work... Na!

But fun  ;D

Codesmart  - thanks for breaking down all steps of your Gk switcher projects production - We all admire your efforts and positive contributions to the community.


whippinpost91850

Mark, I have to agree with you on this. You can only force feed so much down a persons throat when they re not willing to listen with their eyes and ears wide open ???

musicman65

Quote from: Now_And_Then on June 13, 2014, 07:15:22 PMYou couldn't cite a source worse than this shill.
Why? I haven't read the book but the premise that the availability of information and products via the web changes the rules and creates micro-opportunities seems sound. I see it more and more in my line of work.

gumbo

Quote from: CodeSmart on June 13, 2014, 04:41:17 PM
Dr Jones been here for a long time and I respect and acknowledge all his great work, but I did actually try to penetrate the "market" in 2013 by spending a lot of time in designing and producing a small series of GK switchers. GKMX-41/42. I bought short cables and switches from China, other components from Germany, I wired up a prototype by hand, I designed and produced the first series of 10 boards(many nights spent) , found a few bugs and a great guy here helped me to add a 12V to +/-7V converter for the second round of PCB. I bought a drilling machine to produce the boxes (actually hard to find a drill for a 13-pin + extra space hole) and I had them professionally painted and printed. Each unit total production time including testing about 10-12 hours. Bought packaging material, plastic bags, tape Etc. Studied export rules...Each unit sold for abt. $300-360 USD.
Financially worth it? NO WAY! Geek factor, fun to do it, interesting, all positive feedback from customers, recognition worth it? HELL YES!  :)



But fun  ;D


Familiar story here Robert....    ;)

...I'm certainly not in Synth-Linx for the money!!
Read slower!!!   ....I'm typing as fast as I can...

billbax

Hi,

In order to make a small living out of the 13-pin add-on niche, you need at least three or four devices or variations on a product.  I have four types of Hex-GK devices available, and about to add another two.  Dr Joness and Robert from Sweden, I salute the both of you for your pioneering work and service to us v-guitar users. And of course Elantric for his knowledge, experience and a great forum.

Bill

Rhcole

Billbax,

I think you are right regarding needing a handful of products for sale to creating an ongoing niche income.

Guys, one of the things I look for is called "pent-up demand" meaning needs that aren't being satisfied properly. Note how this thread is pulling a surprisingly large number of readers, especially for a topic that is business or market related on a music site. The interest alone is a pointer to possible missed opportunities.

Don't know what the criticism of "The Long Tail" is about, it is no longer considered the revolutionary book it was at the time of publishing, but it's an easy read and a great place to get started when thinking about the Internet and micro-economies. It is most applicable to Amazon and other large vendors, because it essentially says that THEY make money selling YOUR niche products. But consider this:

1. Imagine if this site was better-designed for newbies and had clean and easy access to some of the niche products you brilliant guys are designing
2. As well, what if Elantric and a few others took better advantage of the clout this site is generating within the VGuitar/guitar synth universe and made it THE undisputed source for information on the net, which would open the door to partnerships and alliances with various entities
3. Further, as the producer of a mod box/cable/pickup/software or you name it, you post on this site clear educational materials for newbies explaining what you have and why they need it
4. You sell through this site, through your own site, you post promos on Youtube, you sell through Amazon, you sell through eBay, and other vendors who welcome musical niche products
5. You cooperate with each other to make the Vguitar/guitar synth universe larger and more accessible to outsiders
6. You don't expect large numbers but instead you turn an acceptable profit on small quantities and treat sales as a mini-income source
7. You streamline your process so that it doesn't drive you crazy making sales, circuit boards, shipping, or supporting customers.

It could be fun.

Rhcole

If anybody is interested, I conducted a relevant webinar for a series I host sponsored by the City of Irvine CA Chamber of Commerce. The presentation was called "Forming a Microbusiness for Fun and Profit". You can download it here.
http://www.irvineecondev.com/pages/secondary/irvine_build_business_program_archive

There are a bunch of titles there, you have to scroll down to find it. Look for 04.18.2013 "Forming a Microbusiness for Fun and Profit".